Musoro wekutanga wehurongwa hweindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka: mhepo kana bhena? Zvishongedzo zvemichina yekuvaka yeIndia, chishandiso chebhaketi rekati
Mupepa rino, "mhepo" inoreva chikamu chemutemo wekukura kwakasimba, "moyo" inoreva kuchinja kwemitengo yemasheya emichina yekuvaka, uye "mureza" inoreva shanduko huru yemichina yekuvaka. Nekuongorora shanduko dzemutemo, mashandiro emitengo yemasheya ekare uye hwaro hwemaindasitiri, tinoedza kuwana hukama pakati pezvinhu zvitatu izvi. Kubva munaKurume, mhepo yemutemo wekukura kwakasimba yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, uye kakawanda munhoroondo, mutemo wekukura kwakasimba waratidza hukama nemutengo wemasheya emichina yekuvaka; Muna 2022, kudiwa kweindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka kunotarisirwawo kuona kuvandudzika kudiki. Zvishongedzo zvemichina yekuvaka yeIndia, chishandiso chebhaketi rekati
"Mhepo" yehurongwa hwekukura kwakasimba yasvika.
1) Mutemo wekukura kwakasimba unotarisirwa kuenderera mberi. Musangano wepakati wezvehupfumi wakakurudzira kuti basa rehupfumi muna 2022 rive rakagadzikana uye ritsvage kufambira mberi ukuwo richichengetedza kugadzikana, richiratidza gwara rekukura kwemaindasitiri kwakasimba. Kuti zviitwe sarudzo nemarongero eCPC Central Committee neState Council uye kupa basa rakazara re "ballast" yehupfumi hukuru, National Development and Reform Commission pamwe neMinistry of industry and information technology vakapa pamwe chete mitemo yakati wandei yekusimudzira kukura kwakasimba kwehupfumi hwemaindasitiri nemapoka akakodzera munguva pfupi yapfuura, kuitira kuti vawedzere kushanda kwemutemo, kukurudzira kushanda kwakasimba kwehupfumi hwemaindasitiri uye kuedza kudzikamisa mamiriro ese ehupfumi hukuru. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kupararira kwechikwereti cheUS US 10-year Treasury bonds yeChina kwave kuderera, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kuunzwa kwemitemo yekukura kwakasimba.
2) Kudzora mari yekuvaka muzvivakwa kunoramba kuchiratidza zviri kuitika. Musi wa7 Kubvumbi, China Railway yakazivisa data rekushanda kwekota yekutanga ya2022. Huwandu hwemari yekuvaka yeChina Railway mukota yekutanga hwakasvika 543.45 bhiriyoni yuan, kuwedzera kwe94.1% gore negore. Huwandu hwemari yekuvaka yekuvaka yezvikamu hutsva hwakasvika padanho repamusoro munguva imwecheteyo munhoroondo. Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Kukadzi, huwandu hwemari yekudyara muzvivakwa zvakagadziriswa hwakawedzera ne8.6% gore negore, uye huwandu hwemari yekukura hwakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma. Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Kukadzi, huwandu hwemari yekuisa zvivakwa zvakapihwa nehurumende dzemunharaunda hwakasvika 971.9 bhiriyoni yuan, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe452.8%; Kufambira mberi kwekuburitswa kwemari yekuisa zvivakwa zvehurumende dzemunharaunda kuri kukurumidza kupfuura mumakore apfuura, uye kutanga kwemapurojekiti makuru kunotarisirwa kukurumidzira. Zvishongedzo zvemichina yekuvaka yeIndia, chishandiso chebhaketi rekati
3) Mutemo wekutonga dzimba wakaita kuti pave nekurerutswa kwemitengo. Kubva pakutanga kwegore, mitemo yekutonga dzimba yakaramba isina kugadzikana. Kutanga kubva pakutsigira kudiwa kwakanaka kwekutenga dzimba uye kuwedzera purofiti yemapurojekiti emusika wevhu, takavandudza kudzikira kwekushomeka kwekupa nekudiwa kwezvivakwa mumusika wezvivakwa. Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Kukadzi, mari yakapedzwa mukuvandudza dzimba yakawedzera ne3.7% gore negore, nzvimbo itsva yekuvaka yakaderera ne12.2% gore negore, uye nzvimbo itsva yekuvaka yakaramba ichikura zvisina kunaka. Senzvimbo yakakosha yeindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka, kurerutswa kwemitengo yezvivakwa kunotarisirwa kuwedzera kukurudzira kudzoreredzwa kwemitengo yeindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka.
Maitiro ekufambisa "moyo" wemutengo wemugove wemichina yekuvaka
1) Mitemo yakati wandei yekukura kwakasimba munhoroondo yakaita kuti mutengo wemigove yemichina yekuvaka ukwire. Tichitarisa kumashure mumakore gumi apfuura, China yave nekukura kwakasimba kashanu muna 2008-2009, 2012, 2014-2015, 2018-2019 na2020.
Tichitora semuenzaniso weSany Heavy Industry, kukwira nekudzika kwakanyanya kwemutengo wemasheya eSany munguva shanu dzataurwa pamusoro apa kwaive 89.5%, 22.3%, 118.0%, 60.3% uye 148.2% zvichiteerana, uye kukwira nekudzika kwenzvimbo kwaive 49.3%, - 13.9%, - 24.2%, 52.7% uye 146.9% zvichiteerana.
Zvinogona kuwanikwa kuti mutemo wekukura kwakasimba wakaita basa guru mukusimudzira mutengo wezvikamu zvemichina yekuvaka.
2) Michina yekuvaka inogona kutora mukana wekudyara mari uri nani muchikamu chekudzikira kwemitengo. Tinotarisa pakuongorora mashandiro emutengo wemasheya eSany Heavy Industry muchikamu chekudzikira kweindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka kubva muna 2012 kusvika 2016, izvo zvingave zvine kukosha kwekudyara mari padanho rino:
Kare, mutemo wekukura kwakasimba wakaita kuti mutengo wemasheya weSany Heavy Industry uve wakanaka, uye mikana yekudyara iri nani inogona kuonekwa muchikamu chekudzikira kwemitengo. Tinotenda kuti nzvimbo yekukwira kwemitengo, nzvimbo yekukwira kwemitengo uye nzvimbo yekukwira kwemitengo inotarisirwa ndiyo kiyi yekutonga mashandiro emutengo wemasheya muchikamu chemichina yekuvaka; Kuchinja kunotarisirwa kwemitengo kunogona kutungamira kumhinduro yekutanga yemutengo wemasheya, uye mashandiro anogona kuva chiratidzo chekunonoka muchikamu chekudzikira kwemitengo.
3) Kugadziriswa uku kwakakomba kwemutengo wezvikamu zvemichina yekuvaka kwakaratidza zvizere tarisiro isina tariro yeindasitiri. Kubva muna 2021, mitengo yezvikamu zveSany, Zoomlion, XCMG, Hengli nedzimwe makambani emichina yekuvaka yakagadziriswa zvakanyanya, nekuderera kwe61.9%, 55.1%, 33.0% uye 62.0% zvichiteerana kubva pakakwirira kwemutengo wezvikamu. Kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2021, data rekutengesa kwegore negore rezvigadzirwa zvemichina yekuvaka zvakaita sema excavators, truck cranes uye pombi trucks zvakaramba zvichiderera. Musika unowanzo tenda kuti indasitiri yemichina yekuvaka yaunza peak / down cycle mushure mekukwira kwemakore mashanu, uye mutengo wemasheya unoratidzawo tarisiro iyi isina tariro. Kana kudiwa kweindasitiri kuchitarisirwa kuvandudzika zvishoma muna 2022, tine chikonzero chekutarisira kuti mutengo wemasheya uchagadzikana uye uchadzoka. Zvishongedzo zvemichina yekuvaka yeIndia, cat bucket tool
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-15-2022
