Kuvaka muchina indasitiri zano musoro 1: mhepo kana banner?Indian kuvaka muchina zvishandiso, katsi bhaketi chishandiso
Mubepa rino, "mhepo" inoreva danho rekukura kwakadzikama, "moyo" inoreva kushanduka kwemutengo wemasheya emichina yekuvaka, uye "mureza" inoreva shanduko yakakosha yemachina ekuvaka.Nekuongorora shanduko yemitemo, nhoroondo yemutengo wemasheya uye maindasitiri akakosha, tinoedza kutsvaga hukama pakati pevatatu.Kubva munaKurume, mhepo yekukura kwakadzikama yakawedzera kudziya zvishoma nezvishoma, uye kakawanda munhoroondo, iyo inotsiga yekukura mutemo yakaratidza kuwirirana nemutengo wemari wemichina yekuvaka;Muna 2022, kudiwa kweindasitiri yemuchina wekuvaka kunotarisirwawo kuona kuvandudzwa kwemahombekombe.Indian kuvaka muchina zvishandiso, katsi bhaketi chishandiso
Iyo "mhepo" yekutsiga yekukura mutemo yauya.
1) Iyo yakadzikama yekukura mutemo inotarisirwa kuenderera.Musangano wepakati webasa rehupfumi wakakurudzira kuti basa rehupfumi muna 2022 rive rakagadzikana uye kutsvaga kufambira mberi uku ichichengetedza kugadzikana, ichiratidza gwara rekukura kwakasimba kwemaindasitiri.Kuti iite sarudzo uye marongero eCPC Central Committee uye State Council uye kupa zvizere kuita basa remacroeconomic "ballast", iyo National Development and Reform Commission uye Ministry of indasitiri uye ruzivo tekinoroji vakabatana vakapa mitemo yakati wandei kusimudzira. kukura kwakadzikama kwehupfumi hwemaindasitiri nemapato akakodzera nguva pfupi yadarika, kuitira kuti kuwedzere kushanda kwemitemo, kusimudzira zvinobudirira kushanda kwakadzikama kwehupfumi hwemaindasitiri uye kuedza kudzikamisa mamiriro ehupfumi hwese.Nguva pfupi yadarika, mwero wemhindu wakapararira weChina US 10-year Treasury bond yanga yakatsikitsira, izvo zvinogona kuenderera mberi kubereka kuunzwa kwemitemo yakatsiga yekukura.
2) Iyo countercyclical mutemo wekudyara kwezvivakwa zvinoramba zvichiratidza.Musi waKubvumbi 7, China Railway yakazivisa data rekushanda kwekota yekutanga ye2022. Iyo ichangobva kusainwa capital kuvaka kondirakiti huwandu hweChina Railway mukota yekutanga yakasvika 543.45 bhiriyoni yuan, kuwedzera kwe94,1% gore negore.Mari ichangobva kusainwa mari yekondirakiti yekuvaka mukota yekutanga yakasvika padanho repamusoro panguva imwe chete munhoroondo.Kubva munaNdira kusvika Kukadzi, chiyero chekukura kwezvivakwa fixed asset investimendi chakawedzera ne8.6% gore-pagore, uye chiyero chekukura chakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma.Kubva muna Ndira kusvika munaFebruary, huwandu hwezvisungo zvakakosha zvakaburitswa nehurumende dzenzvimbo dzakasvika 971,9 bhiriyoni yuan, gore negore kuwedzera kwe452,8%;Kufambira mberi kwekubudiswa kwemabhondi ehurumende yenzvimbo kwakakurumidza kudarika makore apfuura, uye kutanga kwemapurojekiti makuru kunotarisirwa kukurumidza.Indian kuvaka muchina zvishandiso, katsi bhaketi chishandiso
3) Iyo real estate regulation policy yakaunza murunyararo kuzorora.Kubva pakutanga kwegore, iyo real estate regulation uye control policy yakaramba ichingove yakasununguka.Kutanga kubva pakutsigira kudiwa kwakanaka kwekutengwa kweimba nekuwedzera purofiti yemapurojekiti emusika wevhu, takavandudza maitiro ekudzikira kwekushaikwa uye kudiwa mumusika wezvivakwa.Kubva munaJanuary kusvika munaFebruary, mari yakapedzwa mukugadzirwa kweimba yakawedzera ne 3.7% gore negore, nzvimbo itsva yekuvaka yakaderera ne12,2% gore negore, uye nzvimbo itsva yekuvaka yakaramba ichikura zvakashata.Seyakakosha pasi pemunda weindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka, kudzoreredzwa kwemuganho weiyo real estate policy inotarisirwa kufambisa kudzoreredza kudiwa kweindasitiri yemuchina wekuvaka.
Nzira yekufambisa sei "moyo" wemutengo wemugove wemichina yekuvaka
1) Mitemo yakati wandei yakatsiga yekukura munhoroondo yakaita kuti mutengo wemugove wechikamu chemichina yekuvaka ukwire.Tichitarisa kumashure pamakore gumi apfuura, China yakambosangana nemataundi mashanu ekukura kwakasimba muna 2008-2009, 2012, 2014-2015, 2018-2019 na2020.
Tichitora Sany Heavy Indasitiri semuenzaniso, kukwira nekudonha kwepamusoro kwemutengo wemugove waSany munguva shanu dziri pamusoro yaive 89.5%, 22.3%, 118.0%, 60.3% uye 148.2% zvakateerana, uye huwandu hwekusimuka nekudonha hwaive 49.3%, - 13.9%, - 24.2%, 52.7% uye 146.9% maererano.
Zvinogona kuwanikwa kuti iyo yakadzikama yekukura mutemo yakaita rimwe basa mukusimudzira mutengo wekugovana wechikamu chemichina yekuvaka.
2) Michina yekuvaka inogona kuramba ichitora iri nani hwindo rekudyara mukudzika kutenderera.Isu tinotarisa pakuongorora mashandiro emutengo wemasheya eSany Heavy Indasitiri mukudzika kutenderera kweindasitiri yemichina yekuvaka kubva muna 2012 kusvika 2016, iyo inogona kuve nereferensi yekukosha kwekudyara panguva ino:
Nhoroondo, iyo yakatsiga yekukura mutemo yaita zvakanaka mhedzisiro pamutengo wekugovana weSany Heavy Indasitiri, uye mikana iri nani yekudyara inogona kuramba ichibatwa mukudzika kutenderera.Isu tinotenda kuti iyo performance inflection point, order inflection point uye order inotarisirwa inflection point ndiyo kiyi yekutonga mutengo wemasheya wechikamu chemichina yekuvaka;Iyo inotarisirwa shanduko yeodha inogona kutungamira kune yekutanga mhinduro yemutengo wemasheya, uye kuita kunogona kuve chiratidzo chekunonoka mukudzika kutenderera.
3) Iyi denderedzwa yekururamisa kwakapinza mumutengo wekugovana wechikamu chemichina yekuvaka yakaratidza zvizere tarisiro yekutadza kweindasitiri.Kubva 2021, mitengo yemasheya yeSany, Zoomlion, XCMG, Hengli nemamwe mabhizinesi emuchina wekuvaka akagadziridzwa zvakanyanya, nekudzikira kwe61.9%, 55.1%, 33.0% uye 62.0% zvichiteerana kubva pamutengo wekupedzisira wekugovana.Kubva chikamu chechipiri cha2021, gore-pa-gore rekutengesa data rezvigadzirwa zvemichina yekuvaka senge zvekuchera, marori cranes nemarori epombi zvakaramba zvichidzikira.Musika uyu unowanzo tenda kuti indasitiri yemichina yekuvaka yakaunza kutenderera kwepamusoro / kudzika mushure memakore mashanu ekukwira kutenderera, uye mutengo wemasheya unoratidzawo tarisiro iyi isina tariro.Kana iyo indasitiri inoda inotarisirwa kuvandudza zvishoma muna 2022, tine chikonzero chekutarisira kuti mutengo wemasheya udzikame uye kudzoreredzwa.Indian kuvaka muchina zvishandiso, katsi bhaketi chishandiso
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-15-2022
